Three Days Later: The Looming Conservative Reaction

I want to cast some speculations about Brexit into the air. Having listened to and read as much as I could for the past three days I have become convinced that the Johnson/Gove wing of the Brexit alliance not only did not expect to win, they did not wish to win. Again, this is speculation, but I think their view was that a high turnout for Brexit would create a situation where their real goal, access to the Single Market without any of the social and other protections offered by the Union, would be attainable.

Listening to Francis Maude this morning it seemed that was the game he was playing. He seemed to think that exit doesn't have to mean exit. Is George Osborne moving between Paris and Berlin trying to get a diplomatic deal done that pulls that off at the eleventh hour? If so he could ask the Parliament to put the referendum aside (on the grounds of real and material change in conditions), and the political class could tough out the reaction. In that scenario the 3 million or so who have petitioned for a re-run of the referendum end up being the useful idiots for a rightward swing for Britain as the only Union that would be available would be the version adapted to the needs of the business wing of the Conservative Party. From their point of view that would be a triumph, and I think it is possible because Gove and Johnson want it too. Liam Fox this morning argued that the process would have to wait until the Conservative had chosen a new leader, making the 150k membership of the Tory party the constitutional hinge of Europe. I think that kind of chutzpah is unlikely to succeed, but Cameron resigning has bought time for Westminster to work out what to do. If he was still there it would be hard to slow up the exit process, and for the other strategy to work that process has to be avoided.

Again this is speculation, but how to assess its likelihood? Britain as European Singapore is not the project of UKIP or of the millions who vote for Brexit, so could the system downface the population and get away with it? Would the Labour right go along with the Lib Dems and the relevant Tories to get some deal of this sort through the Commons? Those questions assume the robustness of the institutions and their capacity to manage the political moment, but is that still true? There is a vacuum, not of power, but of leadership in British politics, but that can be filled in. Is there a legitimacy crisis? Is there a figure with the kind of Pittean cunning necessary to pull this off available? Nicola Sturgeon plays for the opposition, so that is not a possibility.

Finally have the consequences of Brexit simply overwhelmed this kind of thinking? Right now it is impossible to assess the consequences across Europe, but I can't see anyone there colluding with a project of this sort. At what point is it better for Europe to have England walk? Doing a deal with Scotland would soften the blow, and how long could England last alone, especially if financial services are not given easy access to European markets. And now that English Nationalism is a force in British politics it is hard to see it being bottled up.